Dollar Attempting Another Ill-Fated Charge to Make a Bull Trend Stick

Talking Points:

  • The DXY rallied following the US mid-term elections and FOMC decision, in reach of 16-month highs
  • An equally-weighted measure is more appropriate to chart for intent, and it is in the middle of range
  • See how retail FX traders are positioning in Dollar-based majors like EURUSD on the sentiment page

Technical Forecast for US Dollar: Neutral

The Dollar put in for an abrupt reversal this past week, which likely heartens hold out bulls awaiting the return of traction. However, the correction and three-day advance to close this past week likely has more to do with volatility than it does conviction. The combination of the mid-term elections and FOMC rate decision this past week leveraged traders’ attention and likely urged some defensive positioning. The aftermath of the events naturally spurs repositioning on the clearer course settings and with sidelined interests rushing back in. That does not, however, mean that we have necessarily turned any major corners in outlook or activity levels. It is this backdrop of conditions that we should pay more attention to than where the next viable level is with each swing. Otherwise, we may register a

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