Crude Oil Price Rise Fades on US Output Bets, API and IEA on Tap

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil price bounce fizzles on US output bets, deeper losses likely
  • Gold prices may ignore Fed’s Mester speech, focus on US CPI data
  • See our guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving crude oil

Crude oil prices found some support amid a recovery in risk appetite but gains evaporated intraday. OPEC predicted that output from producers outside the cartel will grow by 1.4m b/d this year, an upgrade of about 250k b/d compared with the prior month’s estimate. Later, an EIA report said US shale output will hit 6.76m b/d in March, up from 6.65m b/d in February.

Looking ahead, a monthly report from the IEA as well as API inventory flow data are due to cross the wires. The former may offer yet more evidence that swelling US output might overwhelm OPEC-led production cut efforts. The latter will be judged against forecasts calling for a 2.6 million barrel build to be reported in official DOE statistics on the following day.

Goldprices rose as the US Dollar corrected lower, boosting the appeal

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