EUR/USD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish ECB Account...

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish Euro Talking Points EUR/USD quickly approaches the monthly-high (1.1500) as fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials sap bets for an extended hiking-cycle, but the European Central Bank’s (ECB) account of the October meeting may undermine the recent advance in the exchange rate as the Governing Council remains in no rush to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP). Remarks from Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida suggest the central bank remains hesitant to implement above-neutral interest rates with the world economy showing ‘some evidence that it’s slowing,’ and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to project a longer-run benchmark interest rate of 2.75% to 3.00% at its last meeting for 2018 as ‘risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.’ However, the FOMC may have little choice but to respond to the shift in U.S. trade policy as higher tariffs inflate input prices, and the committee may temporarily implement above-neutral interest rates in an effort to keep inflation around the symmetric 2%...

Global Markets Braced for Brexit Chaos and Italian Showdown...

Equity Analysis and News FTSE 100 | Brexit Uncertainty to Persist, Key Support Tested SP 500 | 2700 Curbs Further Losses, Risk Barometer Points to Indecision FTSE MIB | Italian Budget Showdown Continues For more information, check out Justin’s weekly webinar where he discussed the impact of Brexit and Italy. As of 1720GMT Nov 16th FTSE 100 | Brexit Uncertainty to Persist, Key Support Tested The political backdrop looks bleak for the UK as PM May struggles to bring her party together to support her Brexit plans. Unlike the Pound, this has not led to a large degree of strong selling in the FTSE 100. Partly because the sell-off in the Pound has eased the downside for the more internationally exposure FTSE 100. On the technical front, the 7000 level continues to provide firm support and curb the index of further selling. However, given the uncertainty over Brexit and with a leadership challenge potentially on the horizon, risks remain tilted to the downside. A break and close belowArticle source:...

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Trade Wars, Brexit and Italy Risks Advance as Bulls Hope for Holiday Respite...

The week ahead will test the mettle of holiday trading conditions. The US Thanksgiving holiday is a well-known curb on turnover in global markets which naturally breaks up speculative momentum. However, the abundance of systemic thematic threats (trade wars, Brexit, Italy’s budget) and 2018’s predilection for volatility could make this an unnerving holiday. Oil Forecast – Crude Oil at Risk as OPEC Supply Cut Bets Undermined by Russia, US Crude oil prices confirmed longest losing streak since at least 1984. Renewed OPEC supply cut bets may be undermined as Russia seems off the table while the US continues pumping oil. Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains The Australian Dollar remains in unfamiliar territory just above the long downtrend that marked much of this year. What’s more it may well stay there this week. British Pound Forecast – Brexit Chaos Leaves Sterling Still Vulnerable to Whiplash Moves Trading Sterling (GBP) is becoming increasingly difficult and dangerous as constant Brexit headlines and UK political upheaval combine to create a toxic cocktail. US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Aims Higher on European Turmoil, Fed OutlookArticle source:...

Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains...

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar has held up quite well this month Overall risk appetite will probably decide its fate However this week’s local economic events may be supportive Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page The Australian Dollar continues to hang tough against its US cousin, holding still above the long downtrend line that had held sway for much of this year, until November 1 indeed. AUD/USD may manage to stay around current levels in the week ahead, assuming the overall risk appetite that tends to favor the Aussie holds firm. Investors will not see a huge amount of Australian data to add to their current picture of an economy performing rather well overall. They will however get the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting, which took place on November 6. The Official Cash Rate was left on hold at its record, 1.50% low back then. This surprised no one given inflation’s enduring weakness. It also meant thatArticle source:...

Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains...

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar has held up quite well this month Overall risk appetite will probably decide its fate However this week’s local economic events may be supportive Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page The Australian Dollar continues to hang tough against its US cousin, holding still above the long downtrend line that had held sway for much of this year, until November 1 indeed. AUD/USD may manage to stay around current levels in the week ahead, assuming the overall risk appetite that tends to favor the Aussie holds firm. Investors will not see a huge amount of Australian data to add to their current picture of an economy performing rather well overall. They will however get the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting, which took place on November 6. The Official Cash Rate was left on hold at its record, 1.50% low back then. This surprised no one given inflation’s enduring weakness. It also meant thatArticle source:...

Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains...

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar has held up quite well this month Overall risk appetite will probably decide its fate However this week’s local economic events may be supportive Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page The Australian Dollar continues to hang tough against its US cousin, holding still above the long downtrend line that had held sway for much of this year, until November 1 indeed. AUD/USD may manage to stay around current levels in the week ahead, assuming the overall risk appetite that tends to favor the Aussie holds firm. Investors will not see a huge amount of Australian data to add to their current picture of an economy performing rather well overall. They will however get the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting, which took place on November 6. The Official Cash Rate was left on hold at its record, 1.50% low back then. This surprised no one given inflation’s enduring weakness. It also meant thatArticle source:...