US Dollar: Politics to Overshadow Yellen Speech, FOMC Minutes...

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral US Dollar pressured as “Trump trade” narrative continues to fizzle Politics to overshadow Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, PMI surveys Holiday liquidity drain might amplify volatility on major news-flow Have a question about trading the US Dollar? Join a QA webinar and ask it live! The US Dollar continued to retreat last week as the prospect of expansionary fiscal policy that boosts inflation and nudges the Fed into a steeper rate hike cycle continued to fade. Lawmakers in the House of Representatives passed a version of tax reform that substantially differs from the Senate version – especially after the latter baked in repeal of “Obamacare” – signaling a treacherous reconciliation process ahead. Meanwhile, the investigation into the 2016 election conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller edged closer to President Trump’s inner circle. The Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Mueller has subpoenaed documents from the Trump campaign as he tries to establish any possible collusion between it and Russia. That has stoked politicalArticle source:...

Australian Dollar Likely Stuck, But Watch For RBA Speakers...

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar sagged last week as weak wage data surprised the market Employment growth remains strong but pay rates are lagging severely This week will probably see the USD side of AUD/USD driving The year’s final quarter is getting old. How are the DailyFX Technical and Fundamental forecasts holding up? We have nothing to hide. Last week’s economic snapshots provided market watchers with a little macrocosm of all that plagues Australian Dollar bulls. The country’s official October employment data came in reasonably strongly. Yes, headline job creation missed forecasts by a wide margin but that was down to a fall in part-time positions. Full-time role numbers surged and the overall jobless rate hit a low not seen since early 2013. Overall employment has expanded by 336,000 for the year so far. That’s a very impressive gain in a country with a total employed workforce of just twelve million. And yet the Australian Dollar continues to sag against its US cousin. For, while muchArticle source:...

Yuan Likely to Consolidate as PBOC Maintains Neutral Monetary Policy...

Fundamental Forecast for CNH: Neutral The PBOC will continue the current monetary policy, which has neutral impact to the Yuan. The regulator watches capital flows and told it would counter against cycles through FX market. A high level of broad credit and soaring real-estate prices prevent the PBOC to cut rates. New to FX? Learn how put your ideas into action with FREE guide! The Chinese Yuan gained against the U.S. Dollar and six other G10 currencies this week, while lost to the Japanese Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc. Looking forward, China will have a light calendar next week after major October prints have been released; the focus is now shifting to Chinese regulators’ monetary and financial policies. On Friday, the PBOC revealed its plans for the following periods. These measures could bring a significant impact to the Yuan. China’s Central Bank will continue the neutral monetary policy, according to its third-quarter (3Q) report. The policymaker has been using reverse repos, Medium-term Lending Facility and Standing LendingArticle source:...

Will the S&P 500 Keep Hanging Tough, or Join the DAX & Nikkei Lower?...

Talking Points: Risk-off hits Asian and European shares, U.S. stocks remain largely intact SP 500 still vulnerable, Dow has bearish pattern potential; hold out on selling much longer and picture begins to turn constructive DAX Nikkei need to hold here or more selling likely to set in Check out the DailyFX Forecast to see how we anticipate markets to end 2017. SP 500 The calendar for next week is relatively light, with the only ‘high’ impact releases set for Wednesday when Durable Goods Orders is due out, and later in the day the FOMC minutes from the earlier-month meeting. It’s unlikely there will be anything in the minutes which stir markets too significantly, but as per usual, be prepared for the unexpected. For the full weekly line-up, see the economic calendar. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Expect trade to thin out Wednesday and Friday. The SP and Dow are both postured tenuously, with the later having ‘head-and-shoulders’ potential (most easily viewableArticle source:...

Gold: The Battle Between the Bulls and the Bears Continues...

Talking Points: A breakout from the recent $1,265 – $1,290 range is becoming increasingly likely. Higher US Treasury yields, ahead of a December rate hike, are weighing on the precious metal. Political upheaval and a growing risk-off theme may give gold bulls the upper hand. Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral Gold remains stuck in a narrow trading range with neither the bulls nor the bears giving an inch, while both sides press for range break which is likely coming soon. We remain on the sidelines for now, although growing risk aversion has us leaning towards a long position on a break-out. The argument for a lower price is predicated on higher US interest rates with the target range for the Fed Fund rate likely to be moved up by 0.25% to 1.25%-1.50% at the next Federal Reserve meeting on December 13. A look at short-term US interest rates gives us a slightly clearer picture about the Fed’s interest rate policy with 2-year USTs currently trading just off a nine-year highArticle source:...

Weekly Trading Forecast: US Politics May Trump Economics Again...

Financial markets are likely to remain at the mercy of US politics despite a flurry of speeches from key central bankers and several big-splash releases on the economic calendar. US Dollar Forecast: Politics to Overshadow Yellen Speech, FOMC Minutes The US Dollar is likely to remain at the mercy of politics-driven volatility as inflationary fiscal stimulus prospects remain the central object of speculation. Australian Dollar Forecast:Australian Dollar Likely Stuck, But Watch For RBA Speakers The Australian Dollar is caught between some reasonably perky domestic economic data and a central bank in no obvious hurry to lift interest rates from record lows Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Likely to Consolidate as PBOC Maintains Neutral Monetary Policy China’s Central Bank released the 3Q report. It reveals the regulator’s strategy on monetary policy and financial markets over the following periods. Equities Forecast: Will the SP 500 Keep Hanging Tough, or Join the DAX Nikkei Lower? U.S. stocks continue to hang tough despite sellers hitting markets from Asia to Europe, can they hold on or will they succumb to selling, too? Gold Forecast: The Battle Between the Bulls and theArticle source:...