U.S. Dollar Rebounds as EUR/USD, GBP/USD Seek Out Higher-Low...

Talking Points: – U.S. Dollar weakness came-back with a vengeance after last week’s resistance test. – The Dollar is stretched against many pairs, with IG Client Sentiment showing -2.29 in EUR/USD, -1.99 in GBP/USD. – Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Our Traits of Successful Traders can help, and it’s free-of-charge. To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here U.S. Dollar weakness has priced-in with a vengeance over the past week. It was just last Tuesday that we were looking at the Greenback moving up to test a key area of resistance around 92.60, which was the December swing-low that later showed-up as resistance. But, in the week since, the Dollar has put in another extension of that bigger-picture down-trend, and we’ve seen as much as -2.32% taken-out as the Greenback has pushed down to those fresh three-year lows. We are seeing a bit of a bounce on the morning after buyers began to show yesterday off of the 90.28 low. This keeps the U.S. Dollar inArticle source:...

USD/JPY Risks Larger Rebound on Growing Bets for March Fed Rate-Hike...

Talking Points: – USD/JPY Risks Larger Recovery Amid Growing Bets for March Fed Rate-Hike. – Hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) Rhetoric to Curb EUR/USD Weakness. USD/JPY snaps the recent string of lower lows, with the dollar-yen exchange rate at risks of staging a larger recovery should Federal Reserve officials boost expectations for a March rate-hike. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely anticipated to retain the current policy at the next interest rate decision on January 31, Fed Fund Futures now highlight a greater than 70% chance for a move in March as the central bank forecasts three rate-hikes for this year. In turn, market participants may pay increased attention to Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester as the 2018 voting-member is set to speak over the coming days, and growing bets for higher borrowing-costs may fuel the recent rebound in USD/JPY especially as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to embark on its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control. Nevertheless, the break of the descending triangle keeps theArticle source:...

A Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Crude Oil...

A look at the weekly technicals on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Crude Review the Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter heading into the shortened holiday week. USD/JPY Weekly Chart Notes: Last month we highlighted that our, “immediate focus is on a break of the 112.14-114.33 range to offer guidance,” with a downside break last week shifting the focus lower in USD/JPY. Interim support is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the September advance at 110.15 backed by the March swing low / 2017 low-week close at 107.84 – 108.13– a break there would risk substantial losses with such a scenario targeting the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance at 106.38. Bottom line: Price could see some rebound this week after this recent decline but the focus remainsArticle source:...

Euro Turns to 2017’s Final CPI Figures After ECB Minutes Hint at Faster Exit...

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral – The ongoing build up in net-long Euro positioning received a blessing from the ECB this week after the December meeting minutes hinted at a potentially faster than previously anticipated QE exit. – If there’s anything that could derail the Euro right now it would be inflation data, of which we’ll get the final December (and thus, 2017) figures this week. – The IG Client Sentiment Index has cooled on EUR/USD in the near-term. The Euro was among the top performers last week, adding another +1.42% versus the US Dollar, with EUR/USD on its way to three-year highs. The big spark for the Euro rally came mid-week with the reveal of the European Central Bank’s December meeting minutes, whose underlying tone was more hawkish that anticipated. If a few things break right early on in 2018, the ECB has positioned itself as willing to withdraw stimulus faster than what is currently scheduled. The subtle yet meaningful shift in the ECB’s tone would seem to hinge on economic data continue to point to accelerated rates of growthArticle source:...

Australian, New Zealand Dollars Buoyed by Rate Hike Speculation...

Talking Points: Aussie, NZ Dollars back on the offensive amid swelling rate hike hopes Thin European docket, MLK holiday leave financial markets rudderless German coalition and US budget talks, Brexit diplomacy may bring jolt The Australian and New Zealand Dollars returned to the offensive having lost ground on Friday. The currencies rose alongside local bond yields, hinting at swelling regional rate hike speculation as the driver behind the advance. The Yen also gained ground as Japanese shares turned lower after gapping up at the weekly trading open, offering a boost to the perennially anti-risk currency. The European economic data docket is relatively quiet while the US calendar has been emptied as markets remain closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday. That is likely to sap liquidity and might make for a quiet, consolidative day. Still, thin trading conditions may amplify sensitivity to stray headline risk and translate into kneejerk volatility, so traders would be wise to proceed with caution. Such a jolt can come from a variety of places. In Germany, apparent signs of progress in coalition talks bolstered theArticle source:...

Gold Prices Echo US Dollar Weakness, Crude Oil Gains with Stocks...

Talking Points: Gold prices rise as the US Dollar fails to capitalize on core inflation pickup Crude oil prices find strength in broad-based improvement in risk appetite What do retail traders’ bets suggest about gold price trends? Find out here Gold prices pushed higher as the US Dollar failed to capitalize on even as CPI data showed core inflation unexpectedly accelerated in December. The outcome buoyed Treasury yields while the Fed rate hike outlook steeped but the greenback’s recent inability to find strength in tightening bets continued, with the anti-fiat yellow metal enjoying support by extension. Meanwhile, cycle-sensitive crude oil prices advanced amid a broad improvement in market-wide risk appetite. Indeed, the WTI benchmark telling tracked the SP 500 upward. US retail sales figures may have accounted for the chipper mood. While December’s figures printed broadly as expected, strong upward revisions of November’s data made for a rosy picture. Indeed, consumer-discretionary shares led the way higher. Looking ahead, US market closures for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday hint at quiet consolidation until participation rebuilds Tuesday. Still, the possibility for stray headline riskArticle source:...