COT: Oil Speculators’ Record Week, Euro Traders Stay Long and Strong...

Highlights: Large speculators add furiously oil position, establish a new record Euro large specs continue to exhibit impressive persistence in holding long Positioning profiles and charts for a key markets COT data shows long-term market positioning, for short-term indications check out IG Client Sentiment data. Every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, showing traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below, we’ve outlined key statistics regarding net positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of traders are largely known to be trend-followers. The direction of the position, magnitude of changes, as well as extremes are taken into consideration when analyzing how their market activity could impact future price fluctuations. Key stats: Net position, one-week change, and where the current position stands relative to the past 52 weeks. Noteworthy developments Crude oil: Large speculators have been snatching up contracts at an aggressive pace, adding over 179k in just the past five weeks toArticle source:...

NZD/USD Volatility Expectations Highest, USD/CAD on the Low-end...

What’s inside: Short-term expectations for FX volatility drop, as evidenced by one-week/one-month differentials NZD/USD one-week at 8.8%, 1-stdev range of 6747-6913 USD/CAD one-week at 5.96%, 1-stdev range of 12659-12869 What is expected to drive the FX market during the final weeks of the year? Check out the DailyFX Trading Forecasts. In the table below, we’ve listed implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-week and one-month periods. Also noted are the differentials between the two, which can help shape expectations and/or identify currency pairs where the options market may be under or over-pricing potential price movement in the short-term. Additionally, below are derived one-week range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation. (Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability price will remain within the lower and upper-thresholds.) Short-term expectations for price movement has dropped off significantly with a light economic calendar and holidays coming up on Thursday in both the U.S. and Japan. While the FX market will remain open, both of these major financial hubs will beArticle source:...

Gold Prices Fall Back to Confluent Support, Threatening to Break Impasse...

Talking Points: – Gold prices remain relatively confined within a ~$33 range over the past month. – Sentiment is very stretched in Gold, with +4.22 traders long for every one short as of this writing. Given retail sentiment’s traditional contrarian nature, this is bearish for Gold prices. – Want to see how Gold and USD have held up to the DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts? Click here for full access. To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here In our last article, we looked at Gold prices after the yellow metal fell back-below the vaulted psychological level of $1,300. This move capped off a rather frenetic summer that had seen multiple trends show in Gold prices; at many points being volleyed by related themes in the U.S. Dollar or, more recently, the Euro. But what’s most noteworthy about the current setup in Gold prices aren’t any trends that are being exhibited; but rather the lack thereof. Over the past month, Gold prices have been confined to a relatively tight $33 range. That range threatened to breakArticle source:...

Gold May Reverse Based on Key Shift In Sentiment...

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 72.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.66 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 10.0% lower than yesterday and 21.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.4% higher than yesterday and 20.8% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. — Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research Article source:...

Net-Short Positions To Push Euro Higher Based on Sentiment...

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 23.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 15.8% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias. — Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research Article source:...

Yen Bullish Trading Bias Set Up By Bullish Trading Bias...

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 53.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.13 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Sep 27 when USDJPY traded near 112.881. The number of traders net-long is 0.9% higher than yesterday and 2.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.6% lower than yesterday and 23.1% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias. — Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research Article source:...