CoT Update – Bullish USD Sentiment Remains a Key Theme in Futures Market...

CoT Highlights: USD buying remains a significant trend Euro large speculators quickly nearing flat Updates on GBP, AUD, CAD, and others For a timelier indicator of sentiment in major currencies and markets, see the IG Client Sentiment page. Since April, the central theme in the futures market has been the selling of currencies versus the US dollar, and this trend has room to continue. Overall, while there are 52-week extremes, and in the case of AUD a nearly 3-yr extreme, CHF near an 11-yr level, there is room to go before seeing the kind of major extremes across the board one would expect to see at a big turning point in the dollar. The take-away is that over the intermediate-term there will likely be some twist and turns, but more dollar buying could be in the cards. Every Friday (or Monday in this case due to the July 4th holiday) the CFTC releases an overview of traders’ positioning in the futures market as reported for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below we’ve outlined key statistics in the category of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). This group of tradersArticle source:...

EUR/USD: EUR/USD: Prices May Fall As Net-Short Positions Jump 8.4% Overnight...

Retail Traders Are Moderately Long As Consolidation Extends EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 51.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.07 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.9% higher than yesterday and 1.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.4% higher than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week. To gain more insight to how we use sentiment to power our trading, join us for our weekly Trading Sentiment webinar. EUR/USD Sentiment Unable to Provide Clear Direction We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias. — Written by Jake Schoenleb, DailyFX Research Article source:...

USDJPY Trades Near 2018 Highs As Factors Multiply To Support Rise...

USD/JPY Rate Forecast Talking Points: The ONE Thing: Factors are converging that seem to favor further upside in USD/JPY as the sentiment per the equities market in Tech, and Financial remain buoyant, and the US economy is enjoying a nice basis of positive data surprises. For years, USD/JPY has been in consolidation mode after topping out at 125.85 Yen per USD in mid-2015. Now, traders are bracing for the potential of a multi-period breakout. Trade wars have been in the news. If you’re not familiar with trade wars and their history, We’ve got you covered. KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR JAPANESE YEN RATE TO US DOLLAR: Overall Bias: Bullish above 3yr. Trendline the Weekly Ichimoku Cloud Resistance: 114.20 Yen per USD, November closing high Spot: ¥112.33 per USD Support: ¥110.45 9-week midpoint Let’s Count the Supporting Factors for USD/JPY upside When market leaders like Google Bank of America are breaking out in the equities market, it’s hard to argue for risk-off sentiment to pull USD/JPY lower. When looking through our Q3 JPY guide, we focused onArticle source:...

Bitcoin: Price Jumps While Traders Remain Net-Long...

Net-Long Positions Approach Yearly Highs Bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 78.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.72 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 1.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.5% lower than yesterday and 15.3% lower from last week. Be sure to check out our Bitcoin Trading Guide if you’re new to cryptocurrencies! Bitcoin Sentiment Provides Bearish Bias We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias. — Written by Yayati Tanwar, DailyFX Research Article source:...

GBP/USD: Cable’s Q2 Down-Trend in Focus Ahead of UK CPI...

Talking Points: – The British Pound’s continued down-trend comes into focus this week as a series of pertinent data prints are released out of the UK. The big question is whether this week’s data improves odds of a rate hike at the Bank of England’s next rate decision in August. This is a ‘Super Thursday’ rate decision set for Thursday August the 2nd, and markets have been warming up to the prospect of a rate hike at that decision over the past couple of weeks. – Despite those growing expectations for a hike in August, the British Pound remains mired in the Q2 down-trend that reversed more than half of the prior year’s bullish trend. Bears have been unable to make much ground below the Fibonacci support level at 1.3117, at least so far. – Quarterly Forecasts have just been updated, and the Q3 forecast for GBP/USD is available from the DailyFX Trading Guides Page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the ForexArticle source:...

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Higher-low, Support Test, or Nothing?...

EUR/USD Technical Highlights: EUR/USD higher low on ‘hidden’ support could be in the works Or, a big retest of the low-11500s could also be in store, or Another week of range-bound, summer trading conditions Check out our intermediate-term fundamental and technical perspective on EUR/USD in the recently released DailyFX Q3 Euro Forecast. The last few days brought with them the potential for yet another test of major support in the low-11500s, an area EUR/USD has held on three occasions since late-May. Will it hold, fold, or was Friday’s decline and recovery the carving out of a higher-low from not so obvious support? There is a trend-line from January 2017 running through the bottom of recent price action which also coincides with a lower parallel on the 4-hr chart, this could provide the means to put in place a higher low. However, a break below the lower-parallel/trend-line and an important test of big-picture support will likely develop. If a higher-low has in fact developed as of Friday, or very close to doing so, then a move higher next week could gain traction. But the euro has its work cut out forArticle source:...